Photo : Reuters/Indian Express
14 March 2023, Tuesday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #460
IN FOCUS
By Padmashree Anandhan
French Senate passes the pension reform bill: Three issues
On 11 March, before the senate meeting to vote on the pension reform bill, a set of protests was staged. Those who opposed the increase in the retirement age from 62 to 64 gathered across France, majorly in Paris. According to France’s Interior Ministry close to 368,000 had took part while the CGT labour union reported one million. The nature of protests was observed to be massive due to France’s President Emmanuel Macron rejection to meet the union leaders. On 11 March, using a quicker voting process to vote on entire bill than going by article and amendments, the upper chamber of the parliament voted in favour approving the pension reform. Upon the clearance, the final draft will be submitted for final vote of upper house and national assembly. Macron’s lacking majority, the challenge would be rely on Les Republicans to support in the vote.
Three issues
First, concern of the protestors. The group of the protestors did not limit to the aged population or members of labour unions, but it also comprised youth. Key concern of the protestors was not restricted to the pension plan but it questioned the social system. While health, contribution to pension and right to social benefit topped the list. There were issues over excluding “physical arduous jobs” from the reform, restoration of wealth tax, job protection, and higher wages.
Second, persistent efforts to pass the reform bill. The first attempt on the extension of the retirement age was done under Macron’s first term and in the second term, the decisiveness is even high. After months of discussion, and continuing massive protests, till 07 March Senate failed to vote on the extension of the retirement age. This changed after the Les Republican party leader proposed for Article 38 “closure of debates,” to ensure the reduction of debate over the bill or any amendment. This gave way for reform bill to be passed.
Third, a wishing wand for Marine Le Pen. The intense nature of the protestors and the anger of the labour union is benefitting none but the opposition. Le Pen who closed down twice with Macron in the elections adds advantage from the chaos created from the pension reform bill and the fading popularity of Macron.
References:
“‘Live to work or work to live?’: Why France's youth are fighting Macron’s pension reform,” france24, 08 February 2023
“Protesters in France urge President Macron to scrap pension reform plans,” euronews, 12 March 2023
“France's Sénat passes controversial pension reform,” Le Monde, 11 March 2023
“'A gift to Marine Le Pen': France's pension reform protests, seen through the eyes of international press,” Le Monde, 11 March 2023
“French pension reform: Senators fail to vote on retirement age,” Le Monde, 11 March 2023
War in Ukraine: Day 383
By Padmashree Anandhan
War on the Ground
On 13 March, Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in his address stated that winning Bakhmut and the situation in the front line would be a decider for Ukraine. He added: “It is very tough in the east — very painful. We have to destroy the enemy's military power. And we will destroy it.” According to the report in Deutsche Welle, the “trench warfare” in the zone incurred heavy losses for Ukraine and Russia.
On 13 March, Ukraine’s military analyst Oleh Zhdanov in an interview with Reuters highlighted how Ukraine has begun to send its reserved for the fight in Bakhmut. He warned over the use of such reserves as they were scheduled to be used for counter offensives. According to Oleh: “If we simply give up Bakhmut and withdraw our troops and equipment, nothing terrible can happen.”
The Moscow View
Claims by Russia
On 13 March, TASS reported on extension of the grain deal. Russia stated that it would continue automatically if there are no objections from the parties to the agreement. It conditioned that it would agree the extension period to be only half of the 120-day of the earlier renewal.
On 13 March, Russia’s Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu stated that relations between Russia and China had been the major support to the stability. On the same day Russia’s spokesperson Dmitry Peskov stressed that Russia’s priority will remain to win war through military means and it does not foresee any “preconditions” in the war to shift into a peaceful course.
The West View
Responses from the US and Europe
On 13 March, Germany’s Air Force issued on statement on the usage of its fighter jets. Since August 2022, the group has deployed fighter jets 27 times in the Baltic area. During the operation it identified Russia’s military aircraft and the air force’s Eurofighter had issued an alert without transponder or radio. Till now the three Baltic states which lack their own air forces, has now been utilised by the NATO in the Ämari and Siauliai in Lithuania zones to oversee the airspace position in the Baltic.
On 13 March, France’s President Emmanuel Macron and Hungary’s Prime Minister Viktor Orban discussed on the EU’s stance in Ukraine war. Orban termed the war as “indirect war” and Macron recalled for the united posture of the EU to face Russia. They also discussed on Finland and Sweden’s accession.
On 13 March, the UK announced the update to its foreign policy framework on investing additional GBP five billion to its armed forces in next two years. This means the total defence expenditure will now come to 2.5 per cent of its GDP. Of the allotted five billion, three is expected to be spent on nuclear and submarine capabilities and remaining to help Ukraine restock its weapons.
References
“Ukraine updates: Zelenskyy says future depends on Bakhmut,” Taiwannews, 13 March 2023
“Russia's goals in Ukraine now can only be achieved by military means, says Kremlin,” TASS, 13 March 2023
“Grain deal to be extended automatically unless sides object — source,” TASS, 14 March 2023
“Rishi Sunak pledges £5 billion for defence as UK faces a ‘volatile’ world,” independent.co.uk, 13 March 2023
“Russia-Ukraine war at a glance: what we know on day 383 of the invasion,” The Guardian, 13 March 2023
“Ukraine updates: Zelenskyy says future depends on Bakhmut,” Deutsche Welle, 13 March 2023
IN BRIEF
By Femy Francis
ALBANIA
Population reduces by 1.3 per cent says INSTAT
On 13 March, Euractiv reports that the Institute of Statistics (INSTAT) published that there has been a 1.3 per cent decline in the Albanian population in 2022. Further, there has been a drop in the birth rate and this is further aggregated by young people emigrating from the country every year. In the last decade, only some 700,000 people have left the country with the country’s population reaching 2.79 million in 2022 a drop from 2.83 million in 2021. The data when analyzed is more worrisome as the people migrating from Albania are relatively young belonging to the age group of 20-24. It is estimated that 15,000 people left and that there has been a decline of 6,300 people in the age group of 25- 29 years old. This means the number of people who aid and provide for economic activity has drastically decreased with a down of 32,000. Albania’s Prime Minister Edi Rama said, “These people return with a different mentality, they come with some experience, and they open enterprises, they do things differently, and they make successes,” he said: “I think we should we should do everything to keep going, to improve conditions.” (Alice Taylor, “Albanian population fell by 1.3%, mainly youth, in 2022,” Euractiv, 13 March 2023)
DENMARK
Total aid to the Ukraine war has made a significant difference
On 13 March, Acting Minister of Defense Troels Lund Poulsen of Denmark stated that their contribution to the Ukraine war was DKK five billion. Throughout the war, they have been provided with armed vehicles, drones and training the soldiers and a few weapons exchanges have been Denmark’s donations for the war. Poulsen said: Denmark developed the Harpoon coastal defence system so that it suited Ukrainian conditions and, together with other countries, donated missiles which gave the Ukrainians the opportunity to prevent Russian attacks in the Black Sea.” Denmark has provided vital support for the war but the with depleting nation reserves can put the nation at compromise and therefore they need more support. (“Troels Lund Poulsen: Danish donations have made a big difference in Ukraine,” Fmn.dk, 13 March 2023)
GERMANY
200 Flights cancelled as German workers hold strike demanding higher pay
On 13 March, 200 flights were cancelled in Germany affecting 27,000 passengers as the workers went to strike over the demand for higher pay and against the unsociable working hours. This walkout was initiated by the Verdi trade union over pay for working nights, weekends and bank holidays. The union is demanding a 10.5 per cent raise and they have been offered a five per cent raise by their employers. The unions have refused to accept the offer stating that they are insufficient to make a difference in their expenses. (“Germany: Flights cancelled as workers strike over pay,” Deutsche Welle, 13 March 2023)
POLAND
Defence Minister announced the installation of anti-tank barriers
On 13 March, LRT English reports that Poland is taking measures to erect anti-tank barriers along the route of Belarus and Kaliningrad. This was announced by Polish Defence Minister Mariusz Błaszczak as a move to protect itself from possible aggression. National Security and Defence (NSGK) have suggested Lithuania also invest in border fortification and the required measure that needs to be taken, while the Lithuania still is only considering if it wants to. The threats from Russia and Belarus can be problematic and therefore it's suggested that Lithuania works together with Poland. Retired Colonel Vaidotas Malinionis said: “We are connected by the Suwalki Gap, and we have a common interest in securing that particular area from the Kaliningrad and Belarusian side.” (Vilius Narkūnas, “Poland builds anti-tank barriers on its borders. Should Lithuania follow suit?, ” LRT English, 13 March 2023)
SWITZERLAND
Divide amongst the residents over nuclear energy plan to id the energy issue
On 13 March, Sotomo Institute reported that they survey 9,000 residents out of which 55 per cent supported nuclear power energy should be used to solve the issue of the energy crisis. While 64 per cent opposed the initiation of a Swiss nuclear power plant by 2037. Nuclear energy still remains the third choice after solar and wind power energy where 77 per cent were in favour of their installations and the building of wind turbines or hydroelectric power to aid the energy issue. (“Swiss split over nuclear power to plug energy shortages, ” Swissinfo, 13 March 2023)
REGIONAL
EU and Greece delayed in creating provisions for train safety
On 13 March, Euractiv reports that the EU and Greece for years have been trying to form a modern safety system for railway cross-border interoperability that could possibly connect the rest of Europe. This comes after the rail accident that cost 57 people's lives as there have been multiple delays in the provision to be put into action due to Greece’s insufficient investment planning and the EU not monitoring it properly. In the early 2000s, EU and Greece wanted to upgrade train safety systems and install digital mechanisms to avoid any form of ‘human error’ which was never implemented. EU commissions admit project delays with many projects having the deadline being 2023 while this does not disqualify expenditure till the said deadline. (Sarantis Michalopoulos, “REVEALED: Greece, EU lost in Babel of train safety deals,” Euractiv, 13 March 2023)
REGIONAL
STRATCOMCOE investigates social media companies' inability to detect manipulation
On 13 March, NATO’s Strategic Communications Center of Excellence (STRATCOMCOE) published a report called “Social Media Manipulation” in the year 2022-2023. Where the research found how easy it is to manipulate facts and opinions on social media platforms and that online companies are unwilling to do anything about it. They held an experiment called the “inauthentic interactions” to test how well social media platforms are at detecting manipulations. The report spend EUR 168 on fake engagements “225 comments, 6,560 likes, 15,785 views, and 3,739 shares on Facebook, Instagram, YouTube, Twitter, TikTok and VKontakte, enabling them to identify 6,564 accounts used for social media manipulation purposes. Of the 27,309 fake engagements purchased, more than 93 per cent remained online and active four weeks later.” (“STRATCOMCOE: It's 'easy to circumvent sanctions' to buy Russian manipulation online,” Latvian Public Broadcasting, 13 March 2023)
INTERNATIONAL
SVB collapse to not affect Estonia and the European banking sector
On 13 March, EER News reports that the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank will not affect Estonia or the European banking sector. As the issue will be limited to the business limited sector and limited to specific banks whereas the steps taken by Federal banks would minimize the collateral damage as they provide assurance. A startup Head Eve Peeterson said: “while some companies do have money in SVB, no problems have been reported so far. All these banking concerns are often linked to speculation and fears.” (Mart Linnart,“ Experts: Estonia, Europe unlikely to be impacted by US banks collapsing,” EER News, 13 March 2023)